Dropshipping Profit Calculator
The fantasy number is price minus product cost. The real number includes ad cost, payment fees, subscription share and refunds. This calculator gives you the real one.
Result
Expected refund loss = refund% × (revenue + fees + supplier cost). Conservative on purpose: assumes the supplier won't take returns.
Where dropshipping profit actually dies
Three quiet killers: (1) ad cost creeping up as the audience saturates, (2) refund rates that dashboard ROAS never shows, and (3) the gap between "charged shipping" and what the supplier really bills you. Run this calculator weekly on your winning product with fresh numbers, not launch-day numbers.
Formulas used
- Revenue = price charged + shipping charged
- Costs = supplier product + supplier shipping + ads + payment fee (rev × % + $) + subscription share
- Expected refund loss = refund rate × (revenue + payment fee + supplier cost)
- Expected profit = (revenue − costs) − expected refund loss
Dropshipping or Shopify: which calculator fits your model
Both calculators answer one question - what you actually keep per order - but they start from different cost stacks. This one is built for supplier-side costs: the product cost and shipping billed by the supplier, ad cost per order, the payment fee, and the gap between the shipping you charge the buyer and the shipping the supplier charges you. The Shopify Profit Calculator is built for store-side costs: the monthly plan spread across your orders, the payment processing rate, and the extra transaction fee that applies when a third-party gateway is used instead of the platform’s own payments.
Use this page when the product is the variable - a new supplier, a new ad creative, a new shipping charge. Use the Shopify page when the platform is the variable - a different plan, gateway or order volume. If you dropship on Shopify, run both: this one for the product economics, that one for the platform costs. To price a product backwards from a target margin instead of auditing an existing listing, start from the E-commerce Price Calculator.
FAQ
What is a realistic dropshipping margin?
After everything, 10–25% net on a working product is solid. If your number only works at a 1% refund rate and launch-day ad costs, it doesn't work.
Why count the supplier cost as lost on refunds?
Most dropship suppliers don't accept returns on opened/used goods, and return shipping from the customer often exceeds product value. Counting it as recoverable flatters the number.
Should I include the store subscription?
Yes — spread it across expected orders like the subscription share field. It's small but real, especially before you have volume.